Air Quality Forecast

September 3 – September 7: A cutoff low-pressure system present over the region will influence conditions the next few days. It will bring chances of rain on Thursday night and into Friday morning. Most of the precipitation will fall in the northern Bay Area with diminishing probabilities (<20%) as the system migrates southward to the Central Coast. Regarding the Timber and Plaskett Fires in Big Sur, GOES satellite imaging Thursday morning reveals northwesterly surface flow at the coast.  This is good news for communities directly east of the fire, like Lockwood, as overnight AQIs subsided into the GOOD range. As the day progresses, inland heating could shift winds to a more westerly orientation transporting smoke to the east over the Santa Lucia Mountains and into southern Salinas Valley. Expect GOOD to UNHEALTHY PM2.5 (smoke) AQIs, with excursions into the VERY UNHEALTHY range for communities directly downwind of the fires. Modeling suggests that the low, which is facilitating onshore flow, will be present until at least early next week; therefore, expect this pattern of smoke transport to continue until then. Temperatures will range from the low-50s to the mid-70s at the coast and low-50s to mid-80s inland. Cooler temperatures inland indicate ozone production will be at normal levels; therefore, ozone AQIs will remain GOOD.  20 mph wind speeds with 30 mph gusts in the Salinas Valley could bring PM10 AQIs to MODERATE.

More Information: Timber Fire and Plaskett Fire Smoke Outlook

MBARD Smoke Sensor Network

Click Here for a description of the Air Quality Index

Regulatory Air Monitoring Stations